Saturday, January 24, 2004
THE IQ OF OLIVER BEENE
(For Jeremy's take on this, see the post directly below mine -- he beat me to the punch, though our points-of-attack are somewhat different)
Regular readers here at Sports and B's have known for a while that I think Darrin Beene at the Tribune is crap. Worse yet, the Tribune has posted a picture of the enemy in the upper right of the page for what I'm about to reference.
Today, this is all you need to know to make your judgment about Darrin Beene...
Catching and pitching are not weaknesses for this team.
Yes, you heard him right -- Oliver Beene here (is that show still on?) thinks that catching is not a weakness for the Mariners. In his mind, there is NO OFFENSIVE BLACK HOLE at catcher, even to the point where he tried to use statistics to back up his point. His rationale for not wanting to sign Ivan Rodriguez:
Ask yourself this: Are six home runs worth $5 million?
Last season, Mariners catchers Dan Wilson and Ben Davis had as many RBI, 85, as Rodriguez did. While Rodriguez had a higher batting average and six more home runs than Wilson-Davis, he also earned $10 million. The Mariners paid about half of that to their two catchers.
What about Pudge's defense, and his ability to shut down a running game? Those are worth something.
They are, and they're overrated. Wilson is solid behind the plate, and he is noted for his ability to call a game.
Can you guess what I'm going to say to this? I'll give you thirty seconds to guess...
.
.
.
...And time's up. Here I go...
So Beene thinks Pudge's defense and ability to throw out runners are overrated? I've got news for him: Dan Wilson's ability to call a game is overrated. Wilson's inability to gun out runners is also heavily overlooked. Anybody can steal on the guy. Beene is also somewhat presuming that Ivan Rodriguez calls an inferior game compared to Wilson, and I can hardly believe it's that much superior. As far as I'm concerned, Wilson's ability to call a game is washed out by his inability to gun down runners and his inability to hit (especially for power). And that whole thing about Wilson/Davis being a near-offensive wash (factoring in the money)? Beene is correct (in statistical form, anyway) in pointing out that Ivan Rodriguez has had his home run numbers decline over the past few years, and that he outhomered the Mariners' catching duo by six homers last year. Last year, Dan Wilson and Ben Davis combined for a .238 average, 10 HR, 85 RBI, an on-base of .277 and a slug of .358 (check me on those last two if they seem wrong, but I get an OPS of .635). Ivan hit .297 last year with an on-base of .369, and a slug of .474 (OPS of .843). I'm not sure how familiar the Tacoma News Tribune readership is with the OPS stat, but I'd have to say a pretty important fact is hidden from them when I can clearly see that the similarities between Ivan and Wilson/Davis last year end with the 10 HRs and 85 RBIs. The differences lie in the fact that Ivan had an OPS that was a whole .208 better than the Mariner catchers (and .232 better than Wilson's .611 OPS). All I had to do was crunch through some OPS to say that Beane was full of crap -- no WARP, no VORP, no EqA, nothing like that. No one needs any advanced stats to rebut Beene here.
It's one thing if you don't want to say sign Ivan Rodriguez because he may not play a full slate of games, and I'll give Beene a little credit for mentioning that a little later in the article. But to try to say Ivan Rodriguez wouldn't be a significant offensive upgrade over Dan Wilson and Ben Davis is total crap, in my opinion. To say catching is not a weakness for the Mariners and then use offensive numbers to try to prove the point is pure hogwash.
Would signing Ivan Rodriguez be a high-risk move for the Mariners? Hell yes. Would I think differently of the offseason if the Mariners picked him up? Yes also. Of course there's a chance Ivan could get hurt. If someone told me the day after the Marlins won the World Series that the Mariner offseason would end up with a net result of what the Mariners have right now, I'd be pissed. If someone told me at that same time that there were some irrational moves but then Ivan Rodriguez was included, I'd be a little less irked about the other moves.
Some people out there will manage to find something wrong with a possible Pudge signing. The way I look at it, this would be the one risk this offseason that has the most chance for upside and for general production. With a guy like Rich Aurilia, the Mariners are hoping they get the production that he displayed for one season in his entire career. With Pudge, we know that he's put up high-caliber seasons at least four or five times. And hell, I'd take Ivan's totals from last year anyday...his home run totals were his lowest since 1995 (16 when playing 130 games in a 144-game strike-shortened year), and his .297 batting average was his only sub-.300 batting average since 1994 (.298). Ivan had lows in those categories which he hadn't seen in nearly a decade. Yet, his Marlin team didn't turn out too bad.
Regular readers here at Sports and B's have known for a while that I think Darrin Beene at the Tribune is crap. Worse yet, the Tribune has posted a picture of the enemy in the upper right of the page for what I'm about to reference.
Today, this is all you need to know to make your judgment about Darrin Beene...
Catching and pitching are not weaknesses for this team.
Yes, you heard him right -- Oliver Beene here (is that show still on?) thinks that catching is not a weakness for the Mariners. In his mind, there is NO OFFENSIVE BLACK HOLE at catcher, even to the point where he tried to use statistics to back up his point. His rationale for not wanting to sign Ivan Rodriguez:
Ask yourself this: Are six home runs worth $5 million?
Last season, Mariners catchers Dan Wilson and Ben Davis had as many RBI, 85, as Rodriguez did. While Rodriguez had a higher batting average and six more home runs than Wilson-Davis, he also earned $10 million. The Mariners paid about half of that to their two catchers.
What about Pudge's defense, and his ability to shut down a running game? Those are worth something.
They are, and they're overrated. Wilson is solid behind the plate, and he is noted for his ability to call a game.
Can you guess what I'm going to say to this? I'll give you thirty seconds to guess...
.
.
.
...And time's up. Here I go...
So Beene thinks Pudge's defense and ability to throw out runners are overrated? I've got news for him: Dan Wilson's ability to call a game is overrated. Wilson's inability to gun out runners is also heavily overlooked. Anybody can steal on the guy. Beene is also somewhat presuming that Ivan Rodriguez calls an inferior game compared to Wilson, and I can hardly believe it's that much superior. As far as I'm concerned, Wilson's ability to call a game is washed out by his inability to gun down runners and his inability to hit (especially for power). And that whole thing about Wilson/Davis being a near-offensive wash (factoring in the money)? Beene is correct (in statistical form, anyway) in pointing out that Ivan Rodriguez has had his home run numbers decline over the past few years, and that he outhomered the Mariners' catching duo by six homers last year. Last year, Dan Wilson and Ben Davis combined for a .238 average, 10 HR, 85 RBI, an on-base of .277 and a slug of .358 (check me on those last two if they seem wrong, but I get an OPS of .635). Ivan hit .297 last year with an on-base of .369, and a slug of .474 (OPS of .843). I'm not sure how familiar the Tacoma News Tribune readership is with the OPS stat, but I'd have to say a pretty important fact is hidden from them when I can clearly see that the similarities between Ivan and Wilson/Davis last year end with the 10 HRs and 85 RBIs. The differences lie in the fact that Ivan had an OPS that was a whole .208 better than the Mariner catchers (and .232 better than Wilson's .611 OPS). All I had to do was crunch through some OPS to say that Beane was full of crap -- no WARP, no VORP, no EqA, nothing like that. No one needs any advanced stats to rebut Beene here.
It's one thing if you don't want to say sign Ivan Rodriguez because he may not play a full slate of games, and I'll give Beene a little credit for mentioning that a little later in the article. But to try to say Ivan Rodriguez wouldn't be a significant offensive upgrade over Dan Wilson and Ben Davis is total crap, in my opinion. To say catching is not a weakness for the Mariners and then use offensive numbers to try to prove the point is pure hogwash.
Would signing Ivan Rodriguez be a high-risk move for the Mariners? Hell yes. Would I think differently of the offseason if the Mariners picked him up? Yes also. Of course there's a chance Ivan could get hurt. If someone told me the day after the Marlins won the World Series that the Mariner offseason would end up with a net result of what the Mariners have right now, I'd be pissed. If someone told me at that same time that there were some irrational moves but then Ivan Rodriguez was included, I'd be a little less irked about the other moves.
Some people out there will manage to find something wrong with a possible Pudge signing. The way I look at it, this would be the one risk this offseason that has the most chance for upside and for general production. With a guy like Rich Aurilia, the Mariners are hoping they get the production that he displayed for one season in his entire career. With Pudge, we know that he's put up high-caliber seasons at least four or five times. And hell, I'd take Ivan's totals from last year anyday...his home run totals were his lowest since 1995 (16 when playing 130 games in a 144-game strike-shortened year), and his .297 batting average was his only sub-.300 batting average since 1994 (.298). Ivan had lows in those categories which he hadn't seen in nearly a decade. Yet, his Marlin team didn't turn out too bad.
/ Click for main page
