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Tuesday, November 11, 2003

LIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT... 

Rockin' to the dawn.

Aside from the obvious Judas Priest reference, staying up a tad past midnight means that we can get an early look on the headlines that will show up on subscribers' doorsteps five or six hours later. This of course includes sports headlines.

Both the Timesand P-I have run articles for their Tuesday editions alluding in some way to what the hell Bill Bavasi may or may not do at the GM meetings. The general consensus is that there'll be a lot he WON'T do.

John Hickey has the P-I piece, basically bringing up the Ichiro negotiations, and how Ichiro's agent Tony Attanasio (whose name I easily confuse with that of Phish guitarist Trey Anastasio) has been in Seattle trying to pound out a contract extension for Ichiro, all the while Billy Bavasi is in Phoenix and "[not] intimately involved in the Ichiro negotiations." Bavasi also said that he doesn't anticipate anything huge happening at the GM meetings, and that most of the big FAs that are available now will be available afterward. He also talked very vaguely about the CF position.
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Bob Finnigan has the Times piece.
Bavasi on the big free agents: "With the big guys, you can take your time. They're still going to be out there."
Bavasi on first moves: "Right out of the chute, I prefer to go after a number of players who can help us win, rather than putting everything in one basket."

(the article then talks about the Mariners' "successful formula" used in 2000 and 2001 with the B-list signings of John Olerud, Stan Javier, Aaron Sele, Arthur Rhodes and Jeff Nelson.)

Bavasi on Cirillo: "How much you can do, it's tough to say. You can lay the groundwork. ... That's about as specific as I want to get."
Bavasi on the Mo Vaughn signing: "We were under orders to sign him. We wanted to get out in front, leave ourselves a little wriggle room, but scare off other teams."
Bavasi also acknowledges that Mo Vaughn is now "very available."

Well, Bavasi saying he was "under orders" to sign Mo Vaughn...those are some strong words there. Or at least that's how it struck me.

The general feel of the article toward the end is that the Mariners are going to play it fairly safe at first. It's the last sentence of the Finnigan article that still chaps my hide, though...

"Seattle's three-year statute of limitations on long-term contracts seems alive and well."

Okay, I've said this a bunch of times before. You know who they broke the 3-year statute of limitations on long-term contracts for?

Jeff Cirillo.

INSTEAD OF JASON SCHMIDT.

Both guys were available for "the hometown discount." Why is Schmidt not a Mariner? Good ol' Stand Pat wouldn't give Schmidt a fourth year on his deal. Buuuuut, he gives JEFF FRIGGING CIRILLO a 4th year.

End result: Jeff Cirillo at third instead of somebody else. Cirillo ends up crapping the bed. Instead of Jason Schmidt starting for the Mariners, the fill-the-void-left-by-Sele's-regular-season-numbers pitcher was JAMES BALDWIN.

Baldwin 2002: 7-10, 5.28 ERA, 150 IP
Schmidt 2002: 13-8, 3.45 ERA, 185 1/3 IP

So...the Mariners traded for the third baseman (for basically nothing) and then signed him to a four-year deal. He ended up being crap. The Mariners sign James Baldwin, whose shoulder was never back to speed (never totally healthy) and he had a little too much confidence in HIS 88-MPH FASTBALL THAT DIDN'T FOOL ANYONE. Jason Schmidt had come to SF in 2001 in a day-before-the-deadline deal and went a torrid 7-1 down the stretch. The guy pitches with heart, and his only fallacy this whole time was the small tarnish of injury-proneness. Schmidt pitched fairly well in 2002 (a hell of a lot better than Baldwin). If the 7-1 record down the stretch in 2001 didn't convince you of how badass he was/is, then take into account Schmidt's 17-5 year for 2003 with over 200 innings and a 2.34 ERA (2003 stats are NOW UP at Baseball-reference.com) and the fact that HE CARRIED THAT GIANT PITCHING STAFF. He had some considerable adversity with the death of his mother toward the first half of the season as well as the occasional reminders from his arm that something might be up. Anyway, Schmidt carried the staff in a year where they had lost Russ Ortiz (who would win 20 games in Atlanta) and where they would probably need a couple more complete games from the number one guy because of the absence of Robb Nen in the 9th (luckily Worrell stepped up). Schmidt threw 5 complete games last season.

Okay, so the lesson here is...the Mariners broke the unwritten 3-year law for Jeff Cirillo when they should have broken it for Jason Schmidt. They didn't, Cirillo ended up sucking (did anyone predict him sucking that badly?), but James Baldwin was brought in, which would have never happened if Schmidt was signed (like he would have been if I, David, were your Mariner GM at that point). If I'm not mistaken, the top FA pitchers that were available that offseason were Rick Helling, Ismael Valdes, Jason Schmidt, and James Baldwin. The sick irony is that the Mariners tried Baldwin, he sucked, and in the death throes of the season, they picked up Valdes, who did average, but average for the whole season would have been a lot better than the CRAP that James Baldwin was spewing out a little too regularly.

I'll stop this post while it's still half-coherent...

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