Tuesday, October 28, 2003
BETTER DEAD THAN RED
(note: Okay, this time I could have just linked it too, but I think it would have been one of those deals where the link stays the same but the article on the page changes or whatever. Anyway, here's the article from the Cincinnati Enquirer)
O'Brien's problems come in short, long-term form
To-do list: Find manager, improve scouting
By John Fay
The Cincinnati Enquirer
When Dan O'Brien is introduced today as the new general manager of the Reds, he faces the great GM double-whammy.
The Reds don't spend a lot of money, and their farm system isn't cranking out enough players.
If you spend enough money, you can win, i.e., the New York Yankees. If you produce enough players, you can win, i.e. the Florida Marlins. If you do neither, you don't win, i.e., the Milwaukee Brewers.
There's no way to be certain, but we're pretty sure Carl Lindner didn't promise O'Brien a $100 million payroll.
O'Brien faces a ton of challenges. He has to find a manager, although the guess here is Dave Miley will get the job. He has to find a third baseman. He has to find a long-term replacement for Barry Larkin at shortstop. And he has to put together a pitching staff.
How he does those things will put fans in the seats for 2004. Perhaps more importantly, how O'Brien fares at his long-term task - fixing the scouting and player development - is the key to the franchise becoming competitive again.
The GM O'Brien replaces, Jim Bowden, made a lot of mistakes. But his biggest was constantly trying to fix things short-term. That's how you go into a season with Jimmy Anderson and Josias Manzanillo on your pitching staff, while Chris Reitsma and Jose Acevedo start the season in the minors.
The Reds always had a plan under Bowden. But on different days, it was a different plan.
When the Reds went looking for a new GM, they wanted someone who could get the player development department cranking out players - particularly pitchers. O'Brien's work in Houston landed him the job.
There are three components to producing players: Find talent. Develop the talent. Keep the talent healthy.
The three are intertwined. But it's clear the Reds haven't had a lot of luck drafting good pitching. It's unclear how well they're developing it, because it seems like every top prospect ends up hurt.
O'Brien also isn't going to be given carte blanche to rebuild the baseball operations.
Chief operating officer John Allen has said only that the new GM will have some leeway to bring in his own staff.
But assistant GM Leland Maddox, player development director Tim Naehring and special assistants Johnny Almaraz, Al Goldis, Larry Barton Jr. and Gene Bennett are all under contract. Maddox and Goldis received extensions shortly before Bowden was fired.
The Reds' recent track record of amateur scouting isn't good. Of the last 10 first-round picks, only Austin Kearns and Ryan Wagner are on track to be impact major leaguers.
One scouting mistake illustrates how a really bad decision can hurt a small market franchise.
In 1999, the Reds discovered Miguel Cabrera, the 20-year-old wonder kid of the Marlins.
Felix Delgado, the Reds' scout in Venezuela, was Cabrera's youth coach.
Cabrera signed in July 1999. The Reds could have had him for $800,000. But the money wasn't there. One reason was the club had spent $1.9 million to sign Alejandro Diaz in March 1999. Then-scouting director De Jon Watson made the call on Diaz. Diaz is 28 years old. He's never played above Double-A. Cabrera's drawing comparisons to Alex Rodriguez.
The Reds have had other similar disasters.
They picked Jeremy Sowers first in 2001 and didn't sign him. Ty Howington, the 1999 top pick, and Chris Gruler, the 2002 top pick, have been hurt. David Espinosa, the top 2000 top pick, was traded for a player the Reds released.
The Reds' scouting department has undergone a lot of turnover in recent years. Maddox took over as director of scouting duties from Kasey McKeon in 2001. McKeon had replaced Watson the year before.
Assistant general manager Doc Rodgers left before the 2003 season after being demoted by Bowden. Gary Hughes, one of the top scouts, also left.
So while O'Brien's decision on the manager and free agents will get the attention, his work in scouting and player development will have at least an equal impact.
O'Brien's problems come in short, long-term form
To-do list: Find manager, improve scouting
By John Fay
The Cincinnati Enquirer
When Dan O'Brien is introduced today as the new general manager of the Reds, he faces the great GM double-whammy.
The Reds don't spend a lot of money, and their farm system isn't cranking out enough players.
If you spend enough money, you can win, i.e., the New York Yankees. If you produce enough players, you can win, i.e. the Florida Marlins. If you do neither, you don't win, i.e., the Milwaukee Brewers.
There's no way to be certain, but we're pretty sure Carl Lindner didn't promise O'Brien a $100 million payroll.
O'Brien faces a ton of challenges. He has to find a manager, although the guess here is Dave Miley will get the job. He has to find a third baseman. He has to find a long-term replacement for Barry Larkin at shortstop. And he has to put together a pitching staff.
How he does those things will put fans in the seats for 2004. Perhaps more importantly, how O'Brien fares at his long-term task - fixing the scouting and player development - is the key to the franchise becoming competitive again.
The GM O'Brien replaces, Jim Bowden, made a lot of mistakes. But his biggest was constantly trying to fix things short-term. That's how you go into a season with Jimmy Anderson and Josias Manzanillo on your pitching staff, while Chris Reitsma and Jose Acevedo start the season in the minors.
The Reds always had a plan under Bowden. But on different days, it was a different plan.
When the Reds went looking for a new GM, they wanted someone who could get the player development department cranking out players - particularly pitchers. O'Brien's work in Houston landed him the job.
There are three components to producing players: Find talent. Develop the talent. Keep the talent healthy.
The three are intertwined. But it's clear the Reds haven't had a lot of luck drafting good pitching. It's unclear how well they're developing it, because it seems like every top prospect ends up hurt.
O'Brien also isn't going to be given carte blanche to rebuild the baseball operations.
Chief operating officer John Allen has said only that the new GM will have some leeway to bring in his own staff.
But assistant GM Leland Maddox, player development director Tim Naehring and special assistants Johnny Almaraz, Al Goldis, Larry Barton Jr. and Gene Bennett are all under contract. Maddox and Goldis received extensions shortly before Bowden was fired.
The Reds' recent track record of amateur scouting isn't good. Of the last 10 first-round picks, only Austin Kearns and Ryan Wagner are on track to be impact major leaguers.
One scouting mistake illustrates how a really bad decision can hurt a small market franchise.
In 1999, the Reds discovered Miguel Cabrera, the 20-year-old wonder kid of the Marlins.
Felix Delgado, the Reds' scout in Venezuela, was Cabrera's youth coach.
Cabrera signed in July 1999. The Reds could have had him for $800,000. But the money wasn't there. One reason was the club had spent $1.9 million to sign Alejandro Diaz in March 1999. Then-scouting director De Jon Watson made the call on Diaz. Diaz is 28 years old. He's never played above Double-A. Cabrera's drawing comparisons to Alex Rodriguez.
The Reds have had other similar disasters.
They picked Jeremy Sowers first in 2001 and didn't sign him. Ty Howington, the 1999 top pick, and Chris Gruler, the 2002 top pick, have been hurt. David Espinosa, the top 2000 top pick, was traded for a player the Reds released.
The Reds' scouting department has undergone a lot of turnover in recent years. Maddox took over as director of scouting duties from Kasey McKeon in 2001. McKeon had replaced Watson the year before.
Assistant general manager Doc Rodgers left before the 2003 season after being demoted by Bowden. Gary Hughes, one of the top scouts, also left.
So while O'Brien's decision on the manager and free agents will get the attention, his work in scouting and player development will have at least an equal impact.
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