Friday, August 05, 2005
THE PRO FOOTBALL PROSPECTUS!
If you're a frequent visitor to the Mariner blogosphere, you've probably heard of Baseball Prospectus. But what about the Pro Football Prospectus? Is there such a thing?
Why, yes there is!
The 2005 Pro Football Prospectus was written by Aaron Schatz and the staff of FootballOutsiders.com. Last November, FootballOutsiders.com and Baseball Prospectus entered a partnership. BP writer Will Carroll is featured in the PFP as he tackles the issue of the five football injuries you meet in hell.
What is the Pro Football Prospectus all about? Well, let the guys from FootballOutsiders.com explain...
For the over 14 million people who play fantasy football every year; for the hardcore fan who wants information beyond sports page recaps; for everyone who bets on the NFL; and for the smart, casual enthusiast looking for entertainment and insight comes the essential preseason annual. With numerous statistical measures that go far beyond standard NFL stats, Pro Football Prospectus finally gives NFL fans the kind of Sabermetric-like statistical analysis that revolutionized the fans understanding of baseball. And like its sister publication, Baseball Prospectus, it's written with a knowing dry wit that gets under the skin of America's most popular spectator sport.
I haven't used statistical analysis very often here at Sports And Bremertonians. For some reason, I've never been able to get into statistical analysis in baseball. When it comes to football, however, that's a different story. This season, I'd like to use statistical analysis in my Seahawks/football coverage. No, I'm not crossing over to the dark side, heh.
Statistical analysis is a nice tool to have, but it isn't the only tool. In football, it's obvious that you can't just use statistical analysis, because football is such a complex game. But again, it's a really nice tool to have, especially in some situations.
Example: Schedule strength.
PFP argued the schedule strength between quarterbacks Carson Palmer (Cincinnati) and Byron Leftwich (Jacksonville). Palmer plays in the AFC North while Leftwich is in the AFC South. Which division is tougher? I'd say the AFC North by a longshot, even though Indianapolis is in the South.
"In the NFL, where each team plays only 13 of the other 31 teams, ignoring the impact of schedule when evaluating individual performance would seem foolhardy at best." --- Ned Macey, Pro Football Prospectus
What does the PFP have to say about the Seattle Seahawks?
This was the opening sentence of the 2005 Seahawks preview in the PFP:
"Is it possible for a team to win the division title and be considered a failure? If any team has ever earned this dubious distinction, it is the 2004 Seattle Seahawks." --- Michael David Smith, Pro Football Prospectus
It's hard for me to argue with that point of view. When you lose three times to your divisional rival, an 8-8 team at that, that's a hard pill to swallow.
Smith isn't too high on tight end Jerramy Stevens. He even went as far to say that the 2002 selection of Stevens was a good example of why Mike Holmgren failed as general manager. The 2002 draft was bad for the Seahawks, but the 1999 draft was even worse. It was "terrible", in the words of Smith. Antonio Cochran (4th round) is the only remaining player from the 1999 draft class. Let's just say that Holmgren The Coach is better than Holmgren The GM.
Trent Dilfer was traded to Cleveland, a thought that didn't sit well with Smith. What Smith and other folks have to understand about the Dilfer deal is that once a starting quarterback job opened up, the Seahawks were going to do everything in their power to find Dilfer a new home. It's not fair for a guy like Dilfer to backup Matt Hasselbeck for the rest of his career. Dilfer deserves to start in the NFL again. He'll get that chance this season with the Browns. Best of luck to Trent. I just hope the Browns offensive line can keep him healthy, considering that they have to play both Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice this season.
It's not all doom and gloom for the Seahawks, however. On the cover of the PFP, Matt Hasselbeck is "ready for a rebound". Kelly Herndon was praised for his play in Denver last season. And the PFP believes that the Seahawks will win the NFC West. Wow, a preseason football publication not picking Arizona to win the division? Shocking!
As much as I enjoyed reading the Pro Football Prospectus, there were a few errors that should have been avoided.
---Chike Okeafor is a defensive end, not a linebacker
---Anthony Simmons is no longer with the Seahawks (Simmons was released in March)
---The Tennessee Titans defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 3 times in 1999, not 2000
---Darrell Jackson went to Florida, not Florida State
Errors aside, this is a fun book to read. It's the book that football fans like myself have wanted to read for some time. As much as I love baseball, football is my favorite sport. The Pro Football Prospectus is full of great humor and interesting stats. I'll try to figure out what DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) means by the time the Seahawks open up their 2005 season in Jacksonville September 11.
The 2005 Pro Football Prospectus is at Amazon.com for just $12.89. If you want free shipping, you just need to order at least $25 in merchandise. You're more than welcome to use my shopping plan, which included the PFP, the 2005 NFL Record and Fact Book ($11.53), and the NFL Films CD The Power And The Glory ($10.99). These three items came out to a total of $35.41. Amazon.com is a godsend.
In my opinion, the Pro Football Prospectus is worth the $12.89 just based on the hysterical ramblings on why the Jets were stupid to take Ohio State kicker Mike Nugent in the 2nd round.
"Every time Jason Taylor or Willie McGinest blows by Adrian Jones or Marko Cavka to drop (Chad) Pennington and knock the Jets into deep field goal range, at least Jets fans can feel assured that Mike Nugent will absolutely, positively never miss from 55-plus yards. I mean, the guy was a second-round draft pick, for crying out loud."
So what are you waiting for? Click here. And follow my shopping plan.
Why, yes there is!
The 2005 Pro Football Prospectus was written by Aaron Schatz and the staff of FootballOutsiders.com. Last November, FootballOutsiders.com and Baseball Prospectus entered a partnership. BP writer Will Carroll is featured in the PFP as he tackles the issue of the five football injuries you meet in hell.
What is the Pro Football Prospectus all about? Well, let the guys from FootballOutsiders.com explain...
For the over 14 million people who play fantasy football every year; for the hardcore fan who wants information beyond sports page recaps; for everyone who bets on the NFL; and for the smart, casual enthusiast looking for entertainment and insight comes the essential preseason annual. With numerous statistical measures that go far beyond standard NFL stats, Pro Football Prospectus finally gives NFL fans the kind of Sabermetric-like statistical analysis that revolutionized the fans understanding of baseball. And like its sister publication, Baseball Prospectus, it's written with a knowing dry wit that gets under the skin of America's most popular spectator sport.
I haven't used statistical analysis very often here at Sports And Bremertonians. For some reason, I've never been able to get into statistical analysis in baseball. When it comes to football, however, that's a different story. This season, I'd like to use statistical analysis in my Seahawks/football coverage. No, I'm not crossing over to the dark side, heh.
Statistical analysis is a nice tool to have, but it isn't the only tool. In football, it's obvious that you can't just use statistical analysis, because football is such a complex game. But again, it's a really nice tool to have, especially in some situations.
Example: Schedule strength.
PFP argued the schedule strength between quarterbacks Carson Palmer (Cincinnati) and Byron Leftwich (Jacksonville). Palmer plays in the AFC North while Leftwich is in the AFC South. Which division is tougher? I'd say the AFC North by a longshot, even though Indianapolis is in the South.
"In the NFL, where each team plays only 13 of the other 31 teams, ignoring the impact of schedule when evaluating individual performance would seem foolhardy at best." --- Ned Macey, Pro Football Prospectus
What does the PFP have to say about the Seattle Seahawks?
This was the opening sentence of the 2005 Seahawks preview in the PFP:
"Is it possible for a team to win the division title and be considered a failure? If any team has ever earned this dubious distinction, it is the 2004 Seattle Seahawks." --- Michael David Smith, Pro Football Prospectus
It's hard for me to argue with that point of view. When you lose three times to your divisional rival, an 8-8 team at that, that's a hard pill to swallow.
Smith isn't too high on tight end Jerramy Stevens. He even went as far to say that the 2002 selection of Stevens was a good example of why Mike Holmgren failed as general manager. The 2002 draft was bad for the Seahawks, but the 1999 draft was even worse. It was "terrible", in the words of Smith. Antonio Cochran (4th round) is the only remaining player from the 1999 draft class. Let's just say that Holmgren The Coach is better than Holmgren The GM.
Trent Dilfer was traded to Cleveland, a thought that didn't sit well with Smith. What Smith and other folks have to understand about the Dilfer deal is that once a starting quarterback job opened up, the Seahawks were going to do everything in their power to find Dilfer a new home. It's not fair for a guy like Dilfer to backup Matt Hasselbeck for the rest of his career. Dilfer deserves to start in the NFL again. He'll get that chance this season with the Browns. Best of luck to Trent. I just hope the Browns offensive line can keep him healthy, considering that they have to play both Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice this season.
It's not all doom and gloom for the Seahawks, however. On the cover of the PFP, Matt Hasselbeck is "ready for a rebound". Kelly Herndon was praised for his play in Denver last season. And the PFP believes that the Seahawks will win the NFC West. Wow, a preseason football publication not picking Arizona to win the division? Shocking!
As much as I enjoyed reading the Pro Football Prospectus, there were a few errors that should have been avoided.
---Chike Okeafor is a defensive end, not a linebacker
---Anthony Simmons is no longer with the Seahawks (Simmons was released in March)
---The Tennessee Titans defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 3 times in 1999, not 2000
---Darrell Jackson went to Florida, not Florida State
Errors aside, this is a fun book to read. It's the book that football fans like myself have wanted to read for some time. As much as I love baseball, football is my favorite sport. The Pro Football Prospectus is full of great humor and interesting stats. I'll try to figure out what DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) means by the time the Seahawks open up their 2005 season in Jacksonville September 11.
The 2005 Pro Football Prospectus is at Amazon.com for just $12.89. If you want free shipping, you just need to order at least $25 in merchandise. You're more than welcome to use my shopping plan, which included the PFP, the 2005 NFL Record and Fact Book ($11.53), and the NFL Films CD The Power And The Glory ($10.99). These three items came out to a total of $35.41. Amazon.com is a godsend.
In my opinion, the Pro Football Prospectus is worth the $12.89 just based on the hysterical ramblings on why the Jets were stupid to take Ohio State kicker Mike Nugent in the 2nd round.
"Every time Jason Taylor or Willie McGinest blows by Adrian Jones or Marko Cavka to drop (Chad) Pennington and knock the Jets into deep field goal range, at least Jets fans can feel assured that Mike Nugent will absolutely, positively never miss from 55-plus yards. I mean, the guy was a second-round draft pick, for crying out loud."
So what are you waiting for? Click here. And follow my shopping plan.
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